In what appears to be a comprehensive analysis, the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, the Institute for the Study of War, and CNN have uncovered a sobering reality: Israel has only managed to render a small fraction of Hamas's battalions in the Gaza Strip combat-ineffective. Despite intense military efforts, the report indicates that just three out of the 24 battalions are considered unable to fight effectively. It is important to note that the lead investigative journalist for CNN on this story, Tamara Qiblawi, has been a longstanding vocal critic of Israel and was ordered by her employers to delete anti-Israel social media posts about half a year prior to the October 7th Hamas attacks. One of the posts was a "joke" about the destruction of the Jewish State. 

The report, which draws on Israeli and Hamas military statements, ground footage, and what they define as "expert" interviews, reveals that only three out of Hamas's 24 battalions have been rendered combat-ineffective. This stands in stark contrast to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's assertion that "victory is in sight," a statement he made to a joint session of the US Congress on July 24. The report relies heavily on information from within Gaza and while there is no disclaimer, it is possible that the information was given by Hamas or Islamic Jihad supporters.

To this day, media outlets like CNN rely heavily on information from an entity known as the Gaza Ministry of Health which is a Hamas-controlled division. Only after the United Nations admitted that the numbers of casualties being reported by the Ministry of Health are problematic given the lack of data on the alleged decedents did CNN and other outlets begin adding that the Gaza Ministry of Health is Hamas and that there is no distinction between militant or civilian in their counts.

After the killings of key Hamas figures, Netanyahu has said victory is near. But forensic analyses by @CNN @criticalthreats + @thestudyofwar show a different picture on the ground in Gaza, where Hamas units have reconstituted in areas "cleared" by Israel: https://t.co/JeLQyjiMdk pic.twitter.com/3MuO8xutxW

— Eliza Mackintosh (@elizamackintosh) August 5, 2024

On July 24th, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed to a joint session of the US Congress that "victory is in sight". Israel has boasted of significant victories, including the elimination of top Hamas leaders such as Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa. Moreover, the recent killing of senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran—though unclaimed by Israel—was perceived as a blow to Hamas. However, the new report casts doubt on the extent of these successes.

Israel has indeed succeeded in eliminating high-ranking Hamas leaders, such as Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa. Additionally, senior leader Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly killed in Tehran, although Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for this attack. These targeted strikes are part of Israel's broader strategy to dismantle Hamas's leadership and operational capabilities.

Our analysis of Hamas’ ability to ‘reconstitute’ focused on 16 battalions in northern and central Gaza, the longest-running targets of the war. Seven of these have rebuilt some of their military capabilities at least once. @tamaraqiblawi walks you through our key findings: pic.twitter.com/kxVCzXFS8f

— Allegra Goodwin (@goodwinallegra) August 5, 2024

However, the report highlights, even boasts at times of Hamas's resilience and resourcefulness in the face of Israeli offensives. Even after intense fighting and purges by the IDF, several Hamas units have managed to return to central areas of Gaza. Surviving operatives have been working diligently to restore their capabilities and resume their activities. Israel has returned to areas thought cleared to root out militants who have returned, however aside from this report there have been no indications that the Hamas forces were always there.

The report notes that 13 of Hamas's battalions have been degraded, limiting them to sporadic and largely ineffective guerrilla-style attacks. Nevertheless, eight battalions remain fully combat-effective, capable of carrying out missions against Israeli soldiers on the ground.

The battalions located in the center of Gaza have suffered the least damage, according to Israeli military sources. These central units have managed to evade significant harm, partly due to the strategic belief that many Israeli captives might be held there, leading to more cautious Israeli operations in these areas.

Interesting forensics but armed group comeback is not quite possible to assess via forensics alone, without ethnogrphic work

"Hamas is resurging in areas of Gaza “cleared” by Israel, forensic analyses show. Experts say the bombing campaign."https://t.co/eUPQQ27uTh pic.twitter.com/epgJ6eqOAY

— Akin Unver (@AkinUnver) August 5, 2024

Despite Israel's offensive, nearly half of Hamas's battalions in the northern and central Gaza Strip have managed to rebuild at least some of their capabilities. This ongoing resilience underscores the challenges Israel faces in achieving a decisive and lasting victory against Hamas.

In summary, while Israel has made notable strides in its campaign against Hamas, the report underscores that the road to complete victory is fraught with obstacles. Hamas's ability to adapt and recover continues to pose a significant challenge to Israeli military efforts. The situation remains dynamic, and the ultimate outcome of this protracted conflict is still uncertain.