A montage of pictures of hostages being held in Gaza, some have been returned

Israel's "Phase 2" Terms Released As Male Hostages Set For Release

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The Judean Staff
National

High-Stakes Negotiations: Three Israeli Hostages Expected to be Released Amid Political Turmoil

In a dramatic move that could shape the future of the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented a bold and uncompromising vision for Phase 2 of the hostage deal during his visit to Washington. The plan, which Netanyahu described as a "decisive moment" in Israel’s war against Hamas, outlines a high-stakes framework that could redefine the landscape of the Middle East. 

In a development fraught with diplomatic maneuvering and geopolitical tension, three Israeli male hostages are expected to be released on Saturday—marking the fifth round of releases since the fragile ceasefire took effect. While this should be a moment of relief for the hostages' families, the process remains precarious, with last-minute uncertainties threatening to derail the deal.

The Hostage List: A Political Chess Game

Hamas is expected to deliver the list of hostages to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani on Friday, a crucial step before the names are passed on to Mossad Director David Barnea. While this process has followed a predictable structure in previous rounds, officials now fear external political factors could be leveraged by Hamas to delay or even halt the release.

Trump’s Shadow Over the Deal

Unlike prior releases, which typically took place on Saturday mornings, concerns have arisen that recent statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump—calling for Hamas’s complete destruction and the mass relocation of Gazans—could provide Hamas with the pretext to disrupt the process.

“Trump’s statements have an influence on the current ceasefire and the hostage deal,” an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post, hinting at the unpredictable ripple effects of the former president’s rhetoric. Despite this, Israeli officials maintain cautious optimism, suggesting that the current phase of negotiations is robust enough to withstand external disruptions.

Israel’s Diplomatic Push in Qatar

This weekend, a high-level Israeli delegation is set to arrive in Qatar, a nation that has played a pivotal role in mediating negotiations. The delegation, a senior Israeli official disclosed, will focus on the evolving strategy within Phase 1 of the hostage deal, which reaches its critical halfway mark on Saturday—Day 21 of the agreement.

The discussions are expected to be intense, as Israel seeks to extend Phase 1 to facilitate additional hostage releases. However, internal roadblocks remain. While Netanyahu is aggressively pushing for an extension, Israeli officials caution that even if he succeeds, it may only allow for one extra round of releases beyond the original 42-day deadline.

The Philadelphi Corridor: A Red Line

A major sticking point in these negotiations is Israel’s steadfast refusal to withdraw from the strategically significant Philadelphi Corridor. By Day 50 of the agreement, Israel is required to pull back its forces—a condition Netanyahu has categorically rejected. However, Israeli officials have hinted that a major shift could occur if Hamas’s leadership agrees to exile itself from Gaza, an option that could change the entire dynamic of the deal.

The Trump Factor: Help or Hindrance?

Trump, who remains a dominant force in American politics, has injected himself into the conversation in ways that could shape—or complicate—the next phase of negotiations. On Thursday, his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, held crucial discussions with the Qatari prime minister at Mar-a-Lago, focusing on the second phase of the hostage deal. This meeting followed Witkoff’s consultations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli officials during Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington.

Trump himself added fuel to the fire that same day, declaring, “I will not rest until every last hostage is returned.” But his tough rhetoric has raised concerns in Israeli circles, as he simultaneously warned, “We will be more violent” if the remaining hostages are not freed. Some Israeli officials worry that such statements, alongside calls to obliterate Hamas, might push the terrorist organization to tighten its grip on the remaining captives, further complicating future negotiations.

The key conditions of Phase 2 include:

  • The release of senior Hamas prisoners in exchange for the remaining Israeli hostages, a trade that underscores the delicate balancing act required to secure their freedom.
  • Hamas must fully relinquish its grip over Gaza, an unprecedented demand that would mark the complete collapse of its control in the region.
  • High-profile prisoners and top Hamas leaders still operating within Gaza will be exiled abroad, effectively dismantling the terrorist organization’s command structure.
  • The war will come to an end, but only under Israel’s terms, ensuring that Hamas will no longer pose a threat to Israeli security.

While Netanyahu’s plan has drawn support from Israeli hardliners and key allies in Washington, it remains to be seen whether Hamas will entertain such an ultimatum. Israeli officials believe that international mediators, including Qatar and Egypt, will play a crucial role in pressuring Hamas to accept these terms. However, Hamas’s past resistance to any deal that threatens its survival means that negotiations could reach a boiling point before any resolution is reached.

The Road to Phase 2: A Perilous Path

The former Biden administration seemed determined to advance negotiations into Phase 2, which would see the release of all remaining hostages. However, significant hurdles were required to address and many analysts saw it as far fetched. The central question has always been whether Israel can meet Hamas’s demands without compromising its own security objectives and despite the optimism of the previous U.S. administration, not many others believed they could given Hamas's laundry list of requests that would hand them a propaganda victory while leaving them in power to plan another October 7th style attack as their leadership boasted they would do. 

President Trump's announced plans for Gaza appears to have emboldened Israel to put forth non-negotiable terms that Hamas will likely reject. The question is, will this scuttle all talks and lead to a resumption of fighting or will both parties continue to discuss?

With high-stakes negotiations unfolding in real-time, the fate of the remaining hostages hangs in the balance. As political posturing, military strategy, and international diplomacy collide, the coming days will determine whether Israel can secure further releases—or if the process will unravel under the weight of competing agendas.

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