A recent survey by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute has revealed a sharp divide among Israelis regarding the first stage of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. While a significant 43% of Israelis believe that Hamas has benefited more from the deal than Israel (21%), a resounding 70% still support moving forward with the next stage, provided the initial terms are honored.

Perhaps the most striking revelation of the poll, conducted between January 28 and February 2, 2025, is the widespread belief that former U.S. President Donald Trump played a pivotal role in brokering the ceasefire. An overwhelming 72.5% of respondents credit Trump with securing the agreement, with an even higher approval rate among Jewish respondents (74%).

Growing Anxiety Over National Security

While optimism about Israel’s national security saw a temporary surge in December 2024 (51%), this has since plummeted to 41%—marking a return to pre-December levels. This decline is particularly evident among Jewish respondents, where confidence fell sharply from 56% to 42% in just a month. However, in a surprising contrast, optimism among Arab Israelis regarding national security has increased from 23% to 35%.

Similarly, optimism about Israel’s democratic future has also taken a hit, dropping from 37% in December to 35% in January. Among Jewish respondents, confidence in democracy declined slightly from 39% to 36%, while Arab respondents showed an increase in optimism, rising from 27% to 34%.

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Hamas is scrambling to do damage control after global outrage over the condition of the three Israeli hostages. In an attempt to create a false equivalence, they’ve placed some of their terror prisoners in hospital beds, without connection to IVs or machines and despite them… https://t.co/Pba0rOeqeV pic.twitter.com/qgKi2uVvCw

— Voice From The East (@EasternVoices) February 8, 2025

Who Gained More from the Ceasefire?

The belief that Hamas gained more than Israel from the first stage of the ceasefire is most prevalent among Jewish respondents (47.5%), while in the Arab community, a majority (over 50%) believe both sides benefited equally. Among political camps, the perception that Hamas came out ahead is most pronounced in the Center and the Right, while the Left is evenly split between believing Hamas gained more and that both sides fared equally.

Support for Proceeding to the Second Stage

Despite concerns, a strong majority of Israelis—Jewish and Arab alike—support moving forward with the next phase of the ceasefire agreement, which includes a full cessation of hostilities, withdrawal from Gaza, and a prisoner exchange to secure the release of all hostages. Among Jewish respondents, support is strongest on the Left and Center, while on the Right, only about half (51%) back the move. Notably, 40% of right-wing respondents oppose advancing to the next stage, with 9% undecided.

Israel Democracy Institute poll: If the first stage of the 3-stage ceasefire is completed as agreed, 70% of the total sample—66% of Jewish Israelis, and 92% of Arab Israelis—think Israel should proceed to the second stage.

— Michele Chabin (@MicheleChabin1) February 9, 2025

A breakdown of 2022 Knesset election voters highlights differences among coalition parties: while 54% of Likud and 55% of Shas voters favor proceeding with the ceasefire, support drops significantly among voters of Religious Zionism and United Torah Judaism (35.5% and 35%, respectively). As expected, opposition party voters overwhelmingly back advancing the deal.

Women More Supportive of Ceasefire Than Men

Gender differences in attitudes toward the ceasefire remain consistent with previous surveys. Among Jewish respondents, 73% of women support proceeding to the next stage, compared to just 58% of men. In the Arab community, support among women stands at 94%, slightly higher than the 89% among men.

The Future of Gaza: Who Should Rule?

The survey also revisited a critical question: Who should govern Gaza after the war? Among Jewish respondents, a multinational force remains the most favored option, followed closely by Israeli control. However, support for a multinational presence has increased since September 2024.

They must never be allowed to rule Gaza again. Or anywhere else. https://t.co/WyDX2BDcg5

— Michael Dickson (@michaeldickson) February 8, 2025

In the Arab community, there has been a notable shift. Support for the Palestinian Authority (PA) as the future governing body has declined, while support for a weakened Hamas has surged from just 8% in September to 29% in January. This shift is most evident among younger Arab respondents (ages 18–34), who increasingly see Hamas as a viable governing force, while older Arabs continue to prefer the PA.

Among Jewish respondents, a political breakdown shows that those on the Left (55%) and in the Center (66%) favor multinational governance, whereas the Right prefers Israeli control (51%).

Returning Home After the Northern Ceasefire

In light of the northern ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the survey asked whether residents of northern Israel should return home. A majority of Arab respondents believe it is safe to return, while Jewish respondents are more divided. The Left and Center lean slightly toward believing the security situation allows for a return, while a small majority on the Right believes it is still unsafe.

Should Security Officials Resign?

Following IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi’s resignation, the survey gauged public opinion on whether the heads of Israel’s security agencies (Mossad and Shin Bet) should also step down. A clear majority of Jewish respondents support their resignation, regardless of whether political leaders also step down. However, political orientation plays a role: while the Right overwhelmingly supports immediate resignations, the Center is split, and the Left largely believes security officials should resign only after political leaders take responsibility and step down first.

Trump’s Role in the Ceasefire: A Game-Changer?

Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that his intervention led to the ceasefire and the hostage deal. The survey found that a vast majority (72.5%) of Israelis agree with him. Among Jewish respondents, 83% on the Left, 79% in the Center, and 74% on the Right credit Trump’s involvement in securing the agreement. Even among Arab Israelis, 64% acknowledge Trump’s role in brokering the deal.

A new survey by IDI’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research shows that a large majority of Israelis across the political spectrum think that it is likely that President Trump will “exert real pressure on Israel, perhaps even sanctions, if the Netanyahu-led… pic.twitter.com/j8qxYQcmqj

— Israel Democracy Institute (@IDIisrael) February 4, 2025

Conclusion: A Divided Yet Hopeful Nation

While deep divisions persist in Israeli society—particularly regarding national security and the perceived winners and losers of the ceasefire—there remains a clear willingness to pursue diplomatic solutions. The strong support for advancing the ceasefire agreement, the ongoing debate over Gaza’s future, and the widespread recognition of Trump’s role all highlight a nation grappling with uncertainty but still seeking a path forward.