Hamas spokesperson Khalil Al Hayya speaking about the 50 day ceasefire offer from Hamas to Israel - one that would leave Hamas in Power (Source: video clip - @Partisangirl/X)
Hamas spokesperson Khalil Al Hayya speaking in March 2025 (video snippet)

Hopes for a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza hang in the balance as the latest round of negotiations in Cairo ends in deadlock, according to sources in Egypt and the Palestinian territories. Despite initial signs of potential compromise, no breakthrough was reported as Hamas refuses to concede its demand: a complete and permanent end to the war in Gaza leaving them fully armed while remaining in power.

While Arab media suggest a two-phase prisoner swap is in the works, officials now confirm that the chasm between Israel and Hamas remains dauntingly wide.

The Egyptian Plan: A Staggered Hostage Release Proposal

A report in Al Araby al-Jadeed reveals the contours of an ambitious Egyptian proposal. Under the plan:

  • Nine living hostages are to be released, including American-Israeli IDF soldier Edan Alexander.
  • Hamas would also return the bodies of three slain American-Israelis.
  • In exchange, Israel would release 300 Palestinian prisoners, 150 of whom are convicted murderers serving life sentences.
  • Additionally, 2,200 detainees taken from Gaza during the ongoing war would be freed.

The ceasefire would span 70 days, during which talks would resume for the second phase—one that could include major humanitarian aid flows into Gaza, opening of crossings, and clarity on the fate of the remaining Israeli captives, many of whom have been missing for over six months.

During the day on Monday, there were numerous conflicting reports, including one that claimed Hamas was willing to disarm, that appeared to have been incorrect. It is a common tactic of Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority in general to leak information prior to international talks, only to refute them later, using the confusion to further villify Israel.

No Breakthrough: Hamas Refuses to Disarm or Relinquish Gaza

However, Al Arabiya reports that the negotiations have once again reached a standstill. Hamas insists that any agreement must guarantee an end to the war, including halting Israeli operations in Gaza, retreating to the pre-October 7th, 2023 borders and refraining from any future military engagement. Hamas insists it will remain as the governing authority in Gaza and is also demanding that they retain their weapons. If this were all to happen, it would hand Hamas not just a moral victory, but a tactical one as well - in essense rewarding them for their brutal attack on Israel during a Jewish holiday.

But Israel remains steadfast. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has made it clear: the war will only end when Hamas is eradicated, its control over Gaza dismantled, and its weapons surrendered. This demand has the backing of the United States and other Western allies.

The core impasse? Hamas categorically refuses to lay down arms or give up control of the Gaza Strip.

Signs of Tactical Flexibility—But No Strategic Shift

Despite the deep-rooted ideological clash, some officials suggest Hamas has shown a degree of tactical flexibility. A Hamas delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayya, the group’s chief in Gaza, hinted at willingness to release a larger number of hostages if a truce can be extended.

One Egyptian official told Reuters that the newest offer includes the release of more hostages than previously agreed upon, with Israel seeking the return of around 10 captives, double the number Hamas had earlier consented to free.

But Hamas, according to Egyptian mediators, is demanding solid guarantees—not just promises, but concrete international assurances—that Israel will engage in the second phase of the ceasefire deal, a step that Hamas interprets as the first toward an end to hostilities.

Mounting Pressure From Inside Israel

Meanwhile, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a blistering critique of any staged release plan, warning that time is running out and emphasizing the urgent need to bring everyone home—now. Their statement reflects mounting public pressure on Israeli leadership to prioritize the captives' safe return.

Regional Leaders Convene, International Eyes Watching

In a rare show of unity, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha on Sunday, coordinating efforts to bridge the gap. Al-Sisi reportedly called for expanded international guarantees for the truce, going beyond what Egypt and Qatar can provide.

Adding to the geopolitical weight, former U.S. President Donald Trump weighed in last week, asserting that "progress is being made" and reiterating his support for Israel’s right to defend itself, while also calling on Gazans to leave the enclave—an inflammatory position that complicates the diplomatic landscape.

A War That Shows No Signs of Ending

The war, which began after Hamas launched a brutal surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, left 1,200 Israelis dead and 251 kidnapped into Gaza, according to Israeli officials.

Israel responded with force, vowing to eliminate Hamas and ensure that October 7 would never happen again. While international mediators scramble for a solution, the hostage crisis drags on, and the fate of the captives—and Gaza itself—remains a ticking time bomb.

Sign Up For The Judean Newsletter

I agree with the Terms and conditions and the Privacy policy