A map showing the players in Syria's revived civil war (video clip/Amir Tsarfati-Telegram)

Syrian Civil War: The Geopolitical Earthquake Shaking the Middle East

Details
The Judean Staff
Explainer

The Syrian civil war, a brutal conflict that has ebbed and flowed since its inception in 2011, has reignited with stunning ferocity. On November 27, a coalition of Sunni jihadists—ranging from the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA)—launched a blistering offensive on Aleppo, seizing most of the city and now eyeing Hama. This sudden escalation forces Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia into an intricate geopolitical dance with high stakes for the entire region.

For Israel, the situation presents a complex paradox. While it has no desire to see either Iranian-backed Shia jihadists or Turkish-supported Sunni radicals controlling Syria, it also recognizes an opportunity to weaken its enemies. As former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir once remarked during the Iran-Iraq war, Israel can “wish both sides success.” Yet, the stakes have never been higher.

Israel’s Calculated Neutrality: Between Caution and Opportunity

Israel is not directly involved in Syria's renewed chaos but finds itself as a critical indirect actor. Recent IDF operations have significantly weakened Hezbollah and Iran, two of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s most crucial allies. This, in turn, has emboldened the Sunni jihadist rebels, prompting them to exploit Assad's vulnerabilities.

Jerusalem’s priority remains clear: preventing the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis from using Syria as a launchpad for rearming and fortifying Hezbollah. A severely weakened Assad regime aligns with this goal, but Israel treads carefully. Toppling Assad outright could lead to chaos, potentially empowering unpredictable Sunni extremists. Instead, Israel prefers a weakened yet stable Assad—a leader whose actions are predictable, if not agreeable.

The renewed Syrian conflict presents both challenges and opportunities for Israel. While the ongoing melee keeps its enemies distracted, Israel is carefully monitoring for any signs of Iran exploiting the chaos to transfer arms to Hezbollah. Any such moves will likely be met with decisive action.

Turkey’s Bold Gambit: Erdogan’s High-Stakes Chessboard

Turkey’s fingerprints are all over this renewed offensive. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a longtime backer of Syrian rebels, has greenlit the attack for several reasons. Firstly, he seeks to resettle millions of Syrian refugees back into northern Syria. The refugee crisis has become a domestic powder keg in Turkey, exacerbating economic woes and fueling political dissent. Secondly, Erdogan aims to curb Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, a strategic priority.

This gamble, however, pits Erdogan against Iran, Russia, and even the United States. Despite these tensions, Erdogan sees an opportunity to reshape Syria’s post-war landscape in Turkey’s favor. Success in the rebel offensive strengthens his hand in negotiations with Assad, giving him leverage to achieve his domestic and regional goals.

Iran’s Waning Influence: A Strategic Setback

The civil war’s resurgence is a devastating blow to Iran. Tehran has poured billions into propping up Assad, viewing Syria as a vital link in its “ring of fire” strategy to encircle Israel with hostile proxies. The rebel offensive, however, exposes the limits of Iran’s resources. Hezbollah, once Iran’s most formidable ally in the region, has been decimated by recent Israeli operations. Iranian militias, while numerous, lack Hezbollah’s battle-hardened capabilities and are ill-prepared to reverse Assad’s setbacks.

Losing Syria would deal a severe blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. Not only would it disrupt its arms pipeline to Hezbollah, but it would also undermine Tehran’s strategic depth in the Levant. The stakes for Iran could not be higher, yet its capacity to respond effectively has been significantly diminished.

Russia’s Embarrassment: The Tarnished Superpower

Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria saved Assad’s regime from collapse and cemented Moscow’s influence in the Middle East. Yet, the swift collapse of Assad’s forces around Aleppo is a stark humiliation for the Kremlin. Russia has invested heavily in Syria, securing a naval base in Tartus and an airbase near Latakia, both critical for projecting power in the Mediterranean.

The renewed fighting undermines Russia’s credibility as a reliable ally, particularly as it remains bogged down in Ukraine. Despite its military commitments elsewhere, Russia has conducted bombing runs against the rebels in recent days, underscoring the strategic importance of Syria. However, the loss of Aleppo threatens to unravel Moscow’s hard-won gains, making this conflict a critical test of its regional dominance. 

The Bigger Picture: A Region in Flux

The resurgence of the Syrian civil war underscores the far-reaching consequences of Hamas’s barbaric October 7 attack on Israel. That single event has not only reignited violence in Gaza but also destabilized the broader region. The Syrian rebels’ timing—striking on the same day as the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire—was no coincidence. The ripple effects of October 7 continue to reshape the Middle East in unpredictable ways.

Conclusion: A New Chapter in an Endless Conflict

The Syrian civil war’s renewed intensity forces every major player in the Middle East to reassess its strategy. For Israel, the chaos offers both risks and opportunities. By weakening its enemies while staying out of direct conflict, it can achieve its strategic goals without overextending itself. However, the unpredictability of the situation demands constant vigilance.

As the war unfolds, Israel and the region will be watching closely. In the meantime, the old adage rings true: “The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy.”

Sign Up For The Judean Newsletter

 I agree with the Terms and conditions and the Privacy policy

About Us

The Judean is a weekly digital blog highlighting Israel's vibrant Democracy, rich culture, and complex history. Through compelling op-eds, select news stories, our celebrated Explainers and featured articles about history, archaeology and culture, The Judean brings the real Israel into focus. 'From The River To The Sea' Israel is truly free.
Modi'in, Israel 71702
info@thejudean.com