In a dramatic escalation of tensions, thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups across the Middle East are reportedly on standby to flood into Lebanon and bolster Hezbollah’s ranks if the current conflict with Israel ignites into a full-scale war. This development, according to officials from these factions and informed analysts, underscores the precariousness of the region’s stability.
Backdrop:
Since early October, the Lebanese-Israeli frontier has been a hotbed of nearly daily skirmishes. The initial spark came from a devastating attack by Hamas, originating from Gaza, on southern Israel, which plunged the area into a fierce war. In solidarity, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks against Israel, aiming to stretch the Israeli military thin. Despite these aggressive overtures, Hezbollah has so far refrained from an all-out offensive, much to the chagrin of their Hamas allies.
Escalation and Retaliation:
Tensions have ratcheted up further this month following the Israeli military’s targeted killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon. This act was a response to incessant rocket fire from Hezbollah that sparked widespread forest fires in northern Israel. Hezbollah’s retaliation came swiftly and fiercely, with hundreds of rockets and explosive drones sent into Israeli territory, igniting more fires and intensifying the conflict. According to Hezbollah, over 350 of their commanders have perished in Israeli counterstrikes since the beginning of this hostile exchange.
Thousands of 'axis of resistance' fighters offer to join #Hezbollah in retaliation against #Israel https://t.co/LtzCnII0vp
— Ahram Online (@ahramonline) June 23, 2024
Military Posturing and Threats:
Israeli authorities have warned of a potential military incursion into Lebanon if diplomatic efforts fail to deescalate the situation. The specter of a regional conflagration looms large, especially given the history of cooperation among Iran-backed fighters from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan during Syria’s prolonged civil war. These factions, seasoned by their collaborative efforts in Syria, could coalesce once again to confront Israel.
Nasrallah’s Bold Claims:
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, revealed in a recent speech that militant leaders from across the region, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, have offered to send tens of thousands of fighters to assist Hezbollah. Nasrallah, however, claimed that Hezbollah’s current manpower exceeds 100,000 fighters, suggesting that they are well-equipped to handle the ongoing conflict independently for now.
🚨🇱🇧🇮🇱HEZBOLLAH TO ISRAEL: YOU INVADE, WE WILL TAKE OUT YOUR MAIN AIRPORT AND (MAYBE?) NUCLEAR PLANTS
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 23, 2024
Last night, the leader of Lebnanon’s military group, Hezbollah, sent a video out - translated in all major languages of the region - to make it crystal clear that if Israel… https://t.co/4XqYfp39Wg pic.twitter.com/PGNCvbmIzf
Potential for a Broader War:
The situation could evolve rapidly, transforming into a full-scale war. Nasrallah’s rhetoric hints at this possibility, recalling his 2017 statement that fighters from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan would unite in such a scenario. Officials from Lebanon and Iraq confirm that if war erupts along the Lebanon-Israel border, Iran-backed fighters from across the region are prepared to join the fray. Many of these fighters are already stationed in Syria, poised to slip through the porous borders to Lebanon.
Strategic Unity and Preparations:
The various groups forming the so-called “axis of resistance” have already initiated attacks on Israel and its allies since the onset of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7. They operate under a “unity of arenas” strategy, committing to sustained combat until Israel ceases its offensive in Gaza. An anonymous official from an Iran-backed Iraqi group emphasized their readiness to fight alongside Hezbollah if a broader war ensues.
Taliban To Enter Iran-Israel War? Afghan Forces To Now Help Hezbollah? I... https://t.co/jbkhuQz264 via @YouTube
— Michelle Blake (@1withGod81361) June 23, 2024
International Concerns and Israeli Warnings:
Israel is acutely aware of the potential influx of foreign fighters. During a panel discussion at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, Eran Etzion, a former high-ranking Israeli official, predicted a “high probability” of a multi-front war involving militias from Iraq, Yemen, and a substantial influx of jihadists from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Israel’s military spokesman, Daniel Hagari, highlighted the escalating aggression from Hezbollah, noting over 5,000 rocket, missile, and drone attacks on Israel since October 8. Hagari warned that this increasing hostility could precipitate a broader conflict with devastating regional repercussions.
⚡️Hezbollah also intends to target Israel's offshore gas platforms and pipelines
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) June 22, 2024
From power plants, nuclear weapons storage, military bases and airports, Hezbollah is putting all the cards on the table pic.twitter.com/QIA6SWMfTf
Conclusion:
The United Nations has echoed these concerns, with officials warning that miscalculations could easily spiral into a larger war. The last significant conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 resulted in heavy casualties and widespread displacement. The current clashes have already claimed over 400 lives in Lebanon and 27 in Israel, displacing tens of thousands on both sides.
As the specter of war looms ever larger, the international community watches anxiously, hoping for a resolution that averts further bloodshed. The stakes could not be higher, and the consequences of a full-blown war would be catastrophic for the region.