A recent poll conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is confirming what many in Israeli society have thought for a while. The poll reveals a significant decline in public confidence in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and its leadership. Only 19% of Israelis currently believe that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has the authority to make critical appointments at this time. This figure underscores the deep mistrust and dissatisfaction brewing within the nation, likely fueled by the perceived failures and lack of accountability surrounding the catastrophic events of October 7.

Confidence in IDF's Combat Capabilities Remains High Despite Leadership Concerns

Despite the waning trust in the IDF's leadership, the poll highlights a resilient confidence among Israelis regarding the military's combat capabilities. A robust 65% of Israelis believe that the IDF would be victorious in any potential conflict on Israel's northern border, with this confidence surging to 75% among Israeli Jews. Furthermore, 58% of respondents expressed belief in the IDF's ability to triumph over the Hamas terror group in Gaza, although only 42% are confident that the broader goals of the Gaza conflict will be achieved. These findings suggest a complex landscape of faith in military prowess juxtaposed with disillusionment in strategic leadership.

The finidings are consistent with an Israel Democracy Institute poll that showed Israelis, while mistrustful of their government and politicians, wholly back the Israel Defense Forces with decisions that could mean life and death. 

What does the Israeli Democracy Index tell us? Only a minority believes that an appropriate balance exists between Israel's democratic & Jewish components. Among state institutions, the IDF enjoys the highest levels of trust among Jewish Israelis. https://t.co/N4LYRb7gMh pic.twitter.com/PTRq4o4Aj6

— Israel Democracy Institute (@IDIisrael) January 22, 2023

Societal Healing and Recovery: A Glimmer of Optimism

Amid the turbulence, a majority of 57% of Israelis remain optimistic about the nation's ability to heal and flourish post-crisis. This sentiment reflects a deep-seated resilience and hope for the future, even as the country navigates a period of profound introspection and reassessment of its military and political leadership.

Deepening Israeli-Palestinian Distrust and Escalating Fears

Parallel to the INSS poll, another survey captures the grim state of Israeli-Palestinian relations, painting a portrait of mutual fear, distrust, and despair. The poll, published under the "Pulse" Israeli-Palestinian survey, reveals that nearly identical proportions of Israelis and Palestinians — 90% on each side — accuse the other of harboring extreme, genocidal ambitions. A staggering 66% of Jewish Israelis and 61% of Palestinians believe that the opposing side seeks to annihilate them. An additional 27% of Jewish Israelis and 26% of Palestinians assert that their adversaries aspire to conquer the entire land “from the river to the sea” and expel them from their homes.

These results indicate a record-high level of animosity, with 94% of Palestinians and 86% of Israelis stating unequivocally that the other side cannot be trusted. Such pervasive distrust is compounded by inflammatory rhetoric and teachings that permeate Palestinian schools, mosques, and broader societal messaging, where Jews are often demonized as perpetrators of genocide against Palestinians, fueling a narrative that advocates for the elimination of the Jewish presence in the land. On the Israeli side, fears are largely rooted in the tangible threat of terrorism, as violent acts are seen as a means by which Palestinians pursue their perceived objectives.

Credibility of Polling Institutions Under Scrutiny

The credibility of the polling institutions involved in the "Pulse" survey has been questioned, particularly given the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research’s (PCPSR) history of producing statistics that have been perceived as skewed to bolster Palestinian narratives. Additionally, Tel Aviv University's International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation, which has often been critical of Israeli policies, co-authored the poll, further casting doubt on the objectivity of the results.

"משוכנע" שהחלפת שרהב"ט תביא לשיפור במצב העגום של האמון בממשלה (מתוך סקר INSS).
מצד שני, שרידותה היא העניין, בכל מחיר. pic.twitter.com/zf1cPxsqyr

— Ofer (@OferSegalofer) September 17, 2024

Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads

The stark findings of these polls reflect a nation grappling with internal and external crises. While the Israeli public maintains a strong belief in the IDF's combat capabilities, there is an urgent call for transparency, accountability, and strategic leadership reform within the military ranks. Moreover, the entrenched distrust and fears between Israelis and Palestinians highlight the formidable challenges ahead in achieving any semblance of peace or reconciliation. As both sides remain locked in a cycle of suspicion and hostility, the path to a sustainable resolution appears more elusive than ever.