In a stark and alarming declaration, 130 of Israel's most esteemed economists have issued a dire warning: the current policies of the Israeli government regarding the ultra-Orthodox (haredi) population, coupled with their rapid growth, are steering Israel towards a catastrophic economic and social collapse. This resounding message was delivered in a scathing letter that leaves no room for ambiguity about the impending crisis.
"The State of Israel and haredi society are interdependent," the letter begins. "The prosperity of the state hinges on the haredi community's active participation in the economy, security, and societal frameworks. Conversely, without a robust economy that guarantees security for all citizens, the haredi society is doomed to unsustainable existence."
The economists are unequivocal in their condemnation of policies that disproportionately burden one segment of the population with economic and military responsibilities. They argue that this approach is unsustainable and perilous. The letter meticulously outlines the ramifications: increased military reserve obligations for the working population, continued funding for haredi educational institutions that eschew core subjects, and ongoing exemptions from conscription for a significant and growing portion of the population.
Leading Israeli economists: Government policy regarding haredim is an existential threat to Israel: Among those signed on the letter are numerous prominent Israeli economists, including 73 professors, some from Israel's leading academic institutions. https://t.co/BIQCb5H7UV JPost pic.twitter.com/VGVDqosR62
โ Jewish Community (@JComm_NewsFeeds) May 28, 2024
"If the current trajectory persists, many of those shouldering the economic and security burdens will choose to emigrate, and it will be the most educated and skilled who leave first," the economists warn. This brain drain will leave behind a less productive population, exacerbating the burden on the remaining citizens and triggering a vicious cycle of emigration and economic decline. This "spiral of collapse" will particularly devastate the haredi sector, which relies heavily on public funding.
The letter highlights a startling projection: by 2065, 50% of Israelis under the age of 14 will be haredi, up from 22% today. Without significant policy changes, these trends pose a dire threat to the state's very existence.
The economic repercussions are equally alarming. Increased security needs will necessitate extended reserve duty, costing the economy billions of shekels annually. Companies will be reluctant to hire reservists, crippling public services and economic productivity. The letter predicts a mass exodus of Israeli companies unable to sustain these losses, further weakening the economy.
"ืงืืื ืืืืื ื ืืกืื ื": 130 ืืืืื ืื ืืชืจืืขืื ืืืืชื ืืืืจื - ืืื ืฉืื ืื ืืืืก ืืืจืืื, ืืืืืจืืจืืช ืชืืื ืืืืจื ืืืืชื ืืคืืืhttps://t.co/Ng4N4nYczl | @KerenMarc pic.twitter.com/Tao7OH68Gl
โ ืืืืฉืืช - N12 (@N12News) May 28, 2024
"The moment the burden-bearing population concludes that Israel is on an irreversible path, national collapse will ensue," the letter starkly predicts. The signatories urgently call for a comprehensive strategy to steer Israel back to sustainability. This includes reforming the haredi education system, eliminating incentives for non-work, redistributing the security burden, and enacting constitutional changes to safeguard liberal rights.
"The danger is clear, and basic risk management necessitates immediate action," the economists assert. "This is a genuine alarm. History will not forgive the country's leadersโacross the political spectrumโif they fail to act."
The letter also points to the growing political clout of the haredi population, warning that their demographic growth will enable them to secure overrepresentation in legislation, potentially undermining the state's liberal values.
The economists demand sweeping reforms: overhauling education, equitably distributing the security burden, and ensuring Israel's governance system enshrines liberal and democratic values to prevent future erosion.
"This is not a false alarm. History will be unforgiving to the state's leadersโpast, present, and futureโif they fail to heed this warning," the letter concludes.
Cabinet rejects appeal against bill lowering Haredi draft exemption age https://t.co/k4d1YHhnVn
โ The Times of Israel (@TimesofIsrael) May 27, 2024
The signatories include 73 professors from Israel's top academic institutions, former Director Generals of the Finance Ministry, and other distinguished officials and advisors. Notable names among the signatories include Prof. Eitan Sheshinski, Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg, Prof. Avi Ben-Bassat, Prof. Danny Ben David, Dr. Michael Sarel, Prof. Momi Dahan, Prof. Itai Ater, Prof. Omer Moav, Prof. Leo Leiderman, Prof. Amir Barnea, Prof. Yossi Spiegel, David Brodet, Keren Terner, Shaul Meridor, Prof. Udi Nisan, Prof. Michel Strawczynski, and Roni Hizkiyahu.
The consensus among these luminaries is clear: urgent and decisive action is imperative to avert Israel's economic and social implosion.
