The United States' endeavor to forge a maritime coalition aimed at safeguarding commercial shipping and ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea faces significant hurdles and according to some, might even have fallen apart before it really even began. These challenges are not merely logistical but are deeply entwined with the complex geopolitical landscape of the region, especially near Egypt's critical Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Numerous reports indicate that while 20 countries have expressed willingness to join this coalition, ambiguities persist. Notably, several nations are hesitant to disclose their participation publicly. This reticence underscores broader geopolitical sensitivities and the delicate balancing act required in such international initiatives. It has been reported as well that many of the countries refuse to participate if the operation is not led by NATO, which in and of itself shows a lack of faith in the United States and more specifically, the current administration of Joe Biden.

Operation Prosperity Guardian Infographic Update 24DEC2023 pic.twitter.com/zlcQQ58Osi

— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) December 24, 2023

Complicating matters and highlighting the issues the US has gaining confidence of their partners, nations like Spain, Italy, and France have shown reluctance to align their warships directly with the US Navy. Spain's conditional agreement, stipulating command under NATO or the European Union, highlights divergent strategic interests and approaches among allies.

The Italian Navy's frigate "Virginio Fasan" is set to patrol the region, yet conspicuously outside the ambit of President Biden's "Prosperity Guardian" initiative. This nuanced positioning reflects a broader pattern of strategic autonomy sought by European powers in the face of escalating tensions. The Biden administration has "dropped the ball" according to some when it came time to back their strong words with actions. In fact, many in Europe see the duality of the US's commitment to Israel's right to defense and the constant criticism of how it is executing the war in Gaza as doublespeak - placating a liberal base by throwing an ally under the proverbial bus.

A few updates:

- Pentagon: One-way attack drone fired from Iran struck ship in the Indian Ocean
- 9 attacks since Op. Prosperity Guardian launched—5 yesterday
- Destroyer USS LABOON shot down 4 inbound drones
- Nearly 300 ships diverted from Red Sea
- Chinese warships shadow IKE https://t.co/P1mIiBU69p

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) December 24, 2023

Iran's growing maritime capabilities add a layer of urgency to these efforts. US Navy experts point to Iran's burgeoning fleet, equipped with advanced long-range UAVs like the naval variant of the Shahid-136, as a significant threat. These capabilities, guided by human operators, pose a direct challenge to maritime security in the region.

The potential for Iran to intensify attacks on merchant vessels traversing the Red Sea up to Bab al-Mandab is a looming concern. Such an escalation would not only threaten commercial interests but also signal a broader regional power play, complicating efforts to maintain stability.

Recent incidents underscore these fears. The US Navy's interception of anti-ship missiles targeting a destroyer in the southern Red Sea, coupled with the Houthis' aggressive stance against merchant ships, as reported by Centcom Central Command, illustrates the volatile security environment.

The #IRGCterrorists-backed #Houthis are applauding #Spain for refusing to join Operation Prosperity Guardian due to pressure from the radical left party Sumar.https://t.co/H6VoXp4Jxl

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) December 24, 2023

The attacks on the Baman tanker (Norwegian flag) and a Gabonese tanker (Indian flag) further highlight the international implications of this instability. These incidents are not isolated events but part of a larger pattern of maritime insecurity affecting global commerce and navigation.

In conclusion, the difficulties in establishing the American-led coalition are symptomatic of broader geopolitical dynamics. The Red Sea, a vital artery for global trade, sits at the nexus of these tensions. The coalition's success, or lack thereof, will have far-reaching consequences not just for regional security but for the international order itself. As such, the situation demands not only immediate tactical responses but also a strategic vision that addresses the underlying political and security challenges in this pivotal region.