Last Thursday, top officials from the U.S., Israel, and the United Arab Emirates convened to discuss the future governance of Gaza post-conflict. This significant trilateral dialogue underscores a burgeoning recognition by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the urgent need for a viable and realistic plan for Gaza's administration after the Israel-Hamas war, as reported by Barak Ravid from Axios.
Why This Matters
The gathering reflects Netanyahu's evolving stance towards addressing the long-term governance of Gaza, a region that has been embroiled in turmoil. The high-level discussions point to an emerging consensus that proactive measures must be taken to ensure stability and humanitarian relief once hostilities cease.
Behind the Scenes
Israeli officials revealed that UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed (ABZ) hosted the crucial meeting. Representing the U.S. was President Biden's top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, while Israel was represented by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close ally of Netanyahu. Accompanying Dermer were two senior Israeli defense officials deeply involved in formulating Israel's proposals for Gaza's post-war governance.
Scoop: U.S., Israel and UAE held a secret meeting in Abu Dhabi on Gaza war "day after" plan. My story on @axioshttps://t.co/uXg04SJzzS
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 23, 2024
One day prior to the Israeli delegation's arrival, the UAE set forth its vision in an op-ed by Lana Nusseibeh, ABZ's special envoy. Nusseibeh proposed deploying a temporary international mission to Gaza aimed at addressing the humanitarian crisis, establishing law and order, and laying the groundwork for sustainable governance. This mission, she stated, would include the UAE contributing troops on the ground.
Conditions for International Intervention
Nusseibeh outlined several non-negotiable conditions for such an international force:
- Invitation by the Palestinian Authority (PA): The force must enter Gaza at the formal request of the PA.
- Reform within the PA: Meaningful reforms must be implemented within the PA, including the appointment of a new, empowered, and independent prime minister.
- Israeli Cooperation: The Israeli government must allow the PA to play a role in Gaza's governance and agree to a political process founded on the two-state solution.
- U.S. Leadership: The U.S. would assume a leading role in this "day-after" initiative.
Despite the strategic importance of the discussions, the offices of the Israeli Prime Minister, the White House, and the UAE embassy in Washington declined to comment.
UAE Air Force 🇦🇪 Bombardier CL 600 (UAF1351 reg 1350) landing in Tel Aviv 🇮🇱
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) July 11, 2024
This is the third such flight in the last 72h.
Few days ago Israeli media claimed that the UAE and Egypt had agreed to participate in a post-war Gaza security force, in coordination with the U.S. pic.twitter.com/ze4FURldpe
The Emirati Perspective
The UAE's involvement is driven by a desire to exclude Hamas from Gaza's future while expressing skepticism about the current PA leadership. In a candid meeting in June with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, ABZ disparaged the Palestinian leadership as "Ali Baba and the 40 thieves." The Emiratis voiced concerns that the newly appointed PA prime minister, Mohammed Mustafa, was too close to Mahmoud Abbas and unlikely to initiate necessary reforms. Instead, they proposed alternative candidates, such as Salam Fayyad, a critic of Abbas, for the position.
Friction Points
Netanyahu has expressed a willingness for the UAE to contribute to Gaza's reconstruction and educational overhaul to "de-radicalize" the population. However, he remains unwilling to conclude the ongoing conflict and rejects any formal PA role in Gaza or resumption of a political process based on the two-state solution. This has created a significant point of contention.
Netanyahu’s Changing Stance
Despite initially rejecting a similar plan proposed by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Netanyahu now appears more amenable to discussing such strategies with the U.S. and the UAE. An Israeli official revealed that Netanyahu had previously blocked Gallant's plan but is now presenting it as his own in diplomatic discussions.
https://t.co/VNYC6TkdJZ
— StandWithUs (@StandWithUs) July 22, 2024
An official from the #UnitedArabEmirates has indicated that they are willing to send troops as part of peacekeeping forces in #Gaza following the war, becoming the first Arab nation to respond favorably to the initiative promoted by the United States.
U.S. Pressure and Strategic Imperatives
The Biden administration has been pressing Netanyahu to engage seriously in planning for Gaza's future, emphasizing the risks of a post-agreement vacuum that could lead to chaos or a resurgence of Hamas. Secretary Blinken, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, highlighted the necessity of a comprehensive plan involving governance, security, humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction. President Biden is expected to address these issues in an upcoming meeting with Netanyahu in Washington.
What to Watch
As the conflict continues, the international community's focus remains on ensuring that any resolution includes a robust and sustainable plan for Gaza, with active participation from regional and global stakeholders. The outcome of these discussions will shape the future of Gaza and the broader Middle East.
