Hamas seems to be looking for reasons to cancel tonight's transfer

In a sign that Hamas might, yet again hold up the scheduled release of hostages this evening, or even cancel it, senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi stated on a Qatari news channel that Israel must adhere to the principle of seniority in prisoner releases for the continuation of Israeli hostage releases. This principle prioritizes the release of Palestinians who have served longer sentences.

Confusing matters, contradictory statements emerged from the Red Cross regarding the certainty of hostage releases. Initially, a Red Cross official suggested uncertainty in the process, but this was later clarified. The Red Cross affirmed that preparations for the next phase of releases are proceeding as planned.

The ceasefire agreement, which includes a prisoner exchange, mandates Israel to release three Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli hostage held by Hamas. In compliance with Israel's conditions, the prisoners to be released are predominantly women and teenagers, excluding anyone convicted of murder.

Hamas's insistence on the "seniority" principle has been interpreted as a strategic move to claim a victory. This comes after their recent release of nearly 80 women and teenage boys, imprisoned for offenses ranging from attempted murder to assault with intent to cause harm.

Meanwhile, the killing of four Hamas military commanders in the Gaza Strip, including North Gaza brigade commander Ahmad Al Ghandour, adds complexity to the situation. While the timing of their deaths remains unclear, the Times of Israel reports they were killed before the ceasefire. This undisclosed loss by Hamas could be a tactical diversion to potentially withdraw from the agreement.

Under the ceasefire terms, Israeli forces are authorized to respond to militant activities that threaten their positions. Militants are expected to refrain from retaking or returning to areas held by Israel prior to the ceasefire.

Another development potentially affecting the hostage release involves the reported shooting of a Palestinian farmer in the Gaza Strip's Maghazi refugee camp by Israeli forces, causing one fatality and an injury. This incident, reported by the Palestinian Red Crescent, highlights the fragile nature of the truce between Israel and Hamas.

No official response from Israel has been given regarding this incident. However, there is concern that it might impact the planned exchange of 50 hostages for 150 prisoners, scheduled over four days.

Maghazi, located in central Gaza, is inhabited by families or descendants of refugees from the 1948 war, which led to the creation of the state of Israel.

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