An image posted by a Turkish official on October 23, 2023 (Source: X)

Explainer: Is The Israel-Gaza War Playing Into Erdoğan's Ultimate Plan?

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Jay Engelmayer
Explainer

When Hamas terrorists shattered a celebratory holiday in Israel on October 7th, many around the world placed the blame on Iran. The barbaric acts of rape, torture, and murder that affected over 1400 Israelis, including more than 1100 civilians, including babies, women, and the elderly, clearly bore the hallmarks of Iran's involvement. Whether Iran was directly involved in the planning and execution of the attack is not the focus here; they are complicit due to the financial support and counsel they have provided to the Palestinian terror group over the years. However, there is another guilty party, one that most people are aware of, but due to their position and status within the West, many have chosen to overlook it. That was the case until this past week.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent threat to send troops to help Gaza has raised many alarms in the West. As a NATO member, Turkey hosts some of the world's most strategic bases and possesses some of the deadliest armaments. However, Turkey has been acting more like an adversary to NATO and the West than a security partner. Despite being founded as a secular state unattached to Islam, the country has been reverting to its fundamentalist roots since Erdoğan came to power. To truly understand what is happening and why Turkey plays a pivotal role in everything since October 7, 2023, it is crucial to examine the history of the country that once served as the seat of power for the Ottoman Empire.

In the late nineteenth century, the once-mighty Ottoman Empire had crumbled, earning the nickname "Sick Man of Europe" from the rising European powers. By World War I, Sultan Mehmed V's support of Germany and Austria-Hungary sealed the fate of his Caliphate, which had been in decline since the early 1800s. In 1917, British expeditionary forces, led by General Edmund Allenby, advanced from Egypt into the region known as Southern Syria, an area that included the land of Palestine. On December 11, General Allenby's entry into Jerusalem's Old City marked the end of Ottoman control over the historic city, which they had rebuilt and held for 400 years. The Treaty of Sèvres, negotiated between the Allies and the Ottoman Empire in 1920, was never ratified. A rising nationalist power in what is now Turkey opposed the treaty, which aimed to partition Ottoman territory. A later treaty, known as the Treaty of Lausanne, was eventually brokered and ratified with the Turkish National Movement. Lausanne defined the borders of modern-day Turkey, including Eastern Anatolia, and like all international agreements, it had an expiration date of 100 years. This last point is crucial for understanding the current events and sheds light on many of the changes Erdoğan has implemented in what was once a secular Turkey during his tenure. It is also important to note that since the 100th anniversary of the treaty in July, social media posts from AKP officials have intimated that the return of Jerusalem is near.

With the empire dismantled and the office of the caliph abolished, a secular Turkish state emerged under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his followers, who were known as Kemalists. Losing Jerusalem meant surrendering the "throne of the Caliphate." For nearly a century since, amidst world wars, the Cold War, and the War on Terror, that throne has remained vacant. In the interim, the British Mandate of Palestine gave way to the establishment of the Jewish State, followed by two Arab-Israeli wars and the resurgence of a unified Jewish-controlled Jerusalem. In the 1500s, Suleyman the Magnificent, the Caliph credited with restoring the city to its biblical glory, dreamed that this would happen and warned that "infidels" would conquer Jerusalem during the reign of one of his successors at a time when no caliph existed to unite the Muslim world towards its recapture.

Over the past two decades, Turkey has witnessed the rise of a prominent figure and a movement that challenge the traditional boundaries of Kemalist secularism. Their aim is to recapture the glory reminiscent of the era of Suleyman and other Caliphs. In 1994, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, then a young Islamist, made waves in Turkish politics by winning the mayoral election in Istanbul. As the dynamic leader of the "Welfare" party, Erdoğan initiated Islamic reforms across the city. This endeavor eventually led to his removal from office in 1998 and imprisonment on charges of inciting religious hatred. However, this setback only made him stronger and more popular. Following his release from prison in 1999, Erdoğan re-entered Turkish politics, founding the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which secured victory in the 2002 general election.

Since implementing constitutional reforms to transition Turkey to a presidential system, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AKP party have successively won elections, consolidating their hold on the Turkish parliament. This evolving political landscape has ignited concerns about Turkey's shift away from Western democratic norms. Particular issues include limitations on press freedoms and the ousting of traditionally influential secular elites from Turkey's political, military, and academic spheres. Beyond Turkey's borders, Erdoğan has been proactive in advancing Turkish Islamism through mosques, educational facilities, and foundations across the Middle East, Europe, and North America.

During the Arab Spring in 2011, a series of uprooting events swept across the Middle East, presenting significant geopolitical opportunities for regional powers. Turkey, astutely recognizing these shifts, strategically fostered ties with Sunni Islamist militias embroiled in the Syrian civil war. This alliance not only strengthened Turkey's influence within the Syrian conflict but also paved the way for subsequent military campaigns. Capitalizing on this groundwork, Turkey initiated military operations targeting Kurdish-majority regions along its shared border with Syria, reinforcing its strategic interests in the area.

Riding on the wave of accomplishments in Syria and facing a tepid international reaction, Erdoğan broadened Turkey's influence in 2014 by supporting the pro-Islamist government in Libya amidst its prolonged six-year civil strife. The scope of Turkish involvement grew further when Azerbaijan, a Turkic nation, embarked on a military campaign against Armenia in 2016, vying for control over Nagorno-Karabakh, an area abutting the border between the two countries that each claim as their own. Under Erdoğan's directive, Turkish military units penetrated deeper into Iraqi Kurdistan, advancing to regions such as Sinjar and Duhok. Concurrently, Turkey's ambitions extended to energy exploration, with their natural gas vessels navigating into Greek and Cypriot territories in the Eastern Mediterranean.


Erdoğan has consistently demonstrated a confrontational stance, using rhetoric marked by overt threats directed at a variety of countries, including Armenia, Greece, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. This pattern suggests a deep-rooted commitment to a more aggressive interpretation of Islam. Parallel to this, there's a palpable sentiment within Turkish popular culture harkening back to the era of Ottoman supremacy. This cultural trend may hint at Turkey's aspirations to rejuvenate and reinterpret the Ottoman legacy for modern times, potentially shaping the nation's future geopolitical ambitions.

In the past decade, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has achieved considerable political and military successes in the Middle East and North Africa. However, his ultimate aspiration appears to be the "fortification of Jerusalem." Historically, this endeavor signifies the establishment of a new Caliphate, and in Erdoğan's nationalistic Islamist vision, a distinctly Turkish one. This ambition might seem surprising considering Turkey's past affiliations. In 1949, Turkey made a groundbreaking move by becoming the first Muslim-majority country to formally recognize Israel, fostering a cooperative bond spanning the realms of politics, military, and economics throughout the Cold War era. Yet, since 2002 and under Erdoğan's direction, this once-sturdy alliance has shown signs of fragility and strain.

Following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate in the 1920s, the Muslim Brotherhood, or “al-Ikhwan”, arose in Egypt, aspiring to unite the Arab world under an Islamic governance using democratic and social means. The Cold War and competition for NATO and Soviet support complicated their efforts. The establishment of Israel provided the Brotherhood a cause to galvanize support. However, by 1973, after Arab armies couldn't subdue Israel, leaders like Egypt's President Anwar Sadat began accepting the Jewish State's existence. As an alternative, the Brotherhood promoted a more "pious" stance. In the 1980s, Palestinian members of the Brotherhood founded Hamas in the Gaza Strip, championing "Islamic Resistance."

In 1987, during the First Intifada, Hamas introduced a charter detailing its approach to confront the "Zionist invaders." This charter contained strong anti-Semitic undertones, painting a picture of Israel as a belligerent force and attributing various global disputes and societal problems to the Jewish community. Notably, and more specific to Turkey’s interests, the charter asserted that Jewish involvement in World War I resulted in the fall of the Islamic Ottoman Caliphate. Additionally, Hamas maintained that, with backing from both Western and Eastern "imperialistic forces," Israel was hindering the Muslim God's command for a worldwide Islamic rule. Central to their objectives was the reclaiming of territories lost from the Ottoman Empire, with Jerusalem, Israel's capital, being the core contention point.

In the aftermath of the 1993 Oslo Accords, where the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) established peace terms with Israel, Hamas emerged as the primary Palestinian faction rejecting Israel's right to exist. This adversarial stance was evident during the Second Intifada of 2001 in the West Bank, where Hamas orchestrated approximately 40% of the 135 suicide attacks that wreaked havoc on Israeli civilians through to 2005.

Later that year, a significant shift in the region occurred as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made the decision to withdraw the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from the Gaza Strip. This involved a forceful evacuation of Israeli settlers from their homes. Sharon's move aimed to set the stage for the Palestinian people to exercise self-governance. The subsequent 2006 parliamentary elections delivered a surprising outcome: Hamas clinched a majority, overshadowing the PLO's Fatah party. In a swift and brutal power struggle, Hamas waged a campaign against Fatah in Gaza, resulting in the deaths, torture, and persecution of hundreds suspected of allegiance to the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority.

Following this political upheaval, Ismael Haniyeh, now in the position of prime minister of the Palestinian National Authority and representing Hamas, traveled to Iran in 2006. As a Sunni Muslim leader, his visit to Shiite-majority Iran was significant. During this meeting, Haniyeh reaffirmed Hamas's refusal to acknowledge Israel's legitimacy and expressed a commitment to maintain a combative stance until the "liberation" of Jerusalem. This visit solidified Iran's role as a key supporter and benefactor of Hamas.

As Hamas gained dominance in the Palestinian Territories, Turkey's leadership, led by Erdoğan, initiated a strategy of building a stronger relationship with the organization in Gaza. This bond was exemplified in 2007 when Israel implemented a blockade on Gaza. The IHH "Humanitarian Relief Organization," an Istanbul-based charitable group reportedly associated with Hamas, orchestrated a maritime "humanitarian mission" named the "Gaza Freedom Flotilla" to challenge this blockade. Although the United Nations had validated the legality of Israel's blockade on Gaza, the flotilla sought to penetrate it. This mission culminated in a high-profile international episode when Israeli forces intervened to stop the ships in international waters.

The IHH "Humanitarian Relief Organization" had previously made eight attempts to deliver goods to Gaza by sea. Despite Israel's offer to allow the flotilla to dock at the port of Ashdod for inspection of cargo — to ensure compliance with the items permitted by the blockade — the group declined. Suspicions arose among some observers that the ships might be transporting items restricted by the blockade, potentially to produce rockets and other weaponry.

On May 31, 2010, as Israeli commandos descended onto the Marvi Marmara, a passenger ship in the flotilla, they faced strong resistance from the passengers. This confrontation resulted in the tragic loss of nine lives. The incident became a significant strain on Israeli-Turkish relations, with Erdoğan denouncing it as a "slaughter".

This event provided a strategic advantage for Erdoğan, who utilized it to distance Turkey from Israel diplomatically while growing closer ties with Hamas. Notably, during the 2011 prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas, where 1,027 Palestinian prisoners were traded for the captured IDF soldier, Gilad Shalit, Turkey extended an offer to host senior Hamas figures. Over the subsequent years, reports suggested that high-ranking Hamas members were residing in Turkey, equipped with passports for global travel and state-of-the-art surveillance and cyber warfare resources in Istanbul. In addition, Erdoğan sought to expand Turkey's influence in Jerusalem.

As the centennial of the Lausanne Treaty neared, President Erdoğan of Turkey took a reflective stance on the historical implications of the treaty. In a speech to Turkey's parliament in October 2020, he poignantly expressed his sentiments over the Ottoman Empire's relinquishment of Jerusalem following World War I. Erdoğan stated, "Jerusalem is our city," highlighting its deep-rooted significance to Turkey. He invoked the legacies of the Ottoman Caliphs, specifically referencing the achievements of Selim I and Suleyman the Magnificent from five centuries ago.

It's important to note that this was not an isolated remark. Erdoğan has repeatedly conveyed his sorrow over the decline of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent "loss" of Jerusalem. On multiple occasions, he has asserted in his speeches that Jerusalem, the current capital of the Jewish State, inherently holds a connection to Turkey's history and heritage.

In the aftermath of the Israeli military operation in Gaza in May 2021, President Erdoğan of Turkey ardently stepped forward as a stalwart advocate for the Palestinian cause. Playing to the Islamist Street, he increased his anti-Israel rhetoric, criticizing Israel by terming it a "terror state," particularly over the issue of Jewish visits to the Temple Mount, which holds the distinction of being Judaism's most sacred site.

Taking his advocacy a step further, Erdoğan proposed the establishment of an "interfaith governing body" to oversee Jerusalem. A key component of this proposal was the incorporation of Turkish military personnel in the city, purportedly to maintain peace. This stance garnered acclaim from Palestinian activists who subsequently invited Erdoğan to take on the mantle of "restoring Palestine's liberty."

Yet, there were certain contradictions in Erdoğan's stance. While he was vocal in his criticisms, he overlooked incidents where Al Aqsa Mosque was reportedly utilized by Palestinian militants as a vantage point to launch attacks on Jews. Reports as well as videos posted to social media by some of the participants indicated that they stored Molotov cocktails and fireworks within the mosque, using them against targets from the mosque's windows. Additionally, Erdoğan's proposition for an interfaith body seemed out of touch with the ground reality. Contrary to his assertions about the Temple Mount compound being solely for Muslims, Israel has historically maintained open access to holy sites, not discriminating based on religious affiliation.

President Erdoğan has exhibited strong aspirations to establish a Turkish military influence in Jerusalem. While such desires might be viewed as bold, they distinctly highlight his fervor to reclaim a prominent position in the historical city. Erdoğan's endeavors extend beyond mere military aspirations; Turkey has notably amplified its charitable contributions to several organizations in East Jerusalem, some of which have affiliations with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. These philanthropic actions have further solidified Erdoğan's influence in the region.

A visible manifestation of Turkey's rising influence is the prominence of Turkish flags flying in conjunction with Palestinian ones in proximity to the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City. Furthermore, the "Turkish Cultural Center" in East Jerusalem operates in lieu of the official Turkish consulate and has been instrumental in forging ties with local Palestinian religious figures. Recent collaborations between the center and the Jordanian Waqf, the entity overseeing Muslim interests on the Temple Mount, further underline this growing influence. As a mark of recognition, Erdoğan conferred the "Guardian of Jerusalem Medal" upon the former Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Sheikh Ekrima Sabri, known for his affiliations with Islamist factions.

The culmination of these endeavors is evident in Erdoğan's substantial leverage over the Temple Mount, achieved through Turkish intermediaries stationed in East Jerusalem. His aspirations resonate with the historical importance of Jerusalem and hint at the prospective ramifications of a dominant entity emerging from the northernmost fringes of the Middle East for Israel. In a recent public address, Erdoğan subtly unveiled glimpses of a larger strategy that extends well beyond mere community centers and patronage of sacred Muslim locations in Jerusalem. It's evident that Erdoğan's vision for the region is far-reaching and meticulously orchestrated.

Erdoğan, concerned about Israel's actions in Gaza which he equated to a massacre, voiced his grievances to Pope Francis last week, particularly highlighting the West's conspicuous silence. In response, the Vatican, as documented by Reuters, issued a statement. The Papal spokesperson shared, "The Pope expressed his pain for what is happening and reiterated the position of the Holy See, hoping that the two-state solution can be reached as well as recognizing a special status for the city of Jerusalem." This particular emphasis on Jerusalem's distinct stature is telling. It gives weight to theories suggesting that Erdoğan sought the Pope's support to appoint Turkey as the Protectorate of Jerusalem. Historically, a similar role was accorded to Francis I of France by Suleyman the Magnificent during the Ottoman period.

Even more signs that Turkey has its eyes on reclaiming the former Ottoman territory can be seen all over social media, specifically from those inside Erdoğan’s AKP party. One such example that is making its way around came from Barış ÇELİK who is president of the AKP’s Üsküdar Youth Branch. On October 23rd, he posted to X (formerly Twitter) an image of Turkish flags and troops on top of the Temple Mount, commenting that “The mother wants her child back.” Whether Turkey had anything to do with the planning or was even aware of Hamas’s plans on October 7th remains a mystery, however as events unfold it is obvious that Turkey is positioning itself to be one of the main benefactors of this war.

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