The Palestinian Authority has acted as the legitimate body representing the Palestinian people and their cause for the past 3 decades. Despite inner conflict and many accusations, including from this site, that the PA is nothing more than a terrorist organization, it can always be worse. As the current leader of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), approaches his 87th birthday, his faction’s days are coming to an end as well. Abbas’s age and dominance should be a concern for Israel, but even more so for the law-abiding Arab citizens living in his shadow.
It is extremely hard to predict who will take charge in the aftermath of Abu Mazen, especially because the PA under him is the only Palestinian entity to be internationally recognized by governments that really matter. The narrative Abu Mazen will tell about the near future without him is that a successor within the PA will take over and continue his mission of a semi-peaceful fight for a Palestinian state.
Mahmoud Abbas is 86 years old. When he dies, who will take over the Palestinian Authority? https://t.co/Cl4AxKrwGb
— Mosaic (@mosaicmag) September 6, 2022
Hussein al-Sheikh is the man many assume will attempt to rise to power on behalf of Abu Mazen’s party and the PA. Born in Jordanian-controlled Ramallah in 1960, he currently carries the largely meaningless title of the Secretary General of the Executive Committee for the PLO. For those reading who haven’t heard of him, it’s ok, most Palestinians feel the same way and that is a big part of the issue.
New @FDD Flash Brief on increased violence in the West Bank by terrorist groups. They are positioning themselves to assume control of the increasingly lawless Palestinian Authority when its current president, Mahmoud Abbas, dies or leaves office. https://t.co/mvgRzjkyC1
— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) September 29, 2022
Most Arabs living under PA rule saw Egyptian-born & raised Yasser Arafat as their savior and still see Abu Mazen as the lesser of two evils. Nobody else who falls within the definition of a PLO member has any importance to the Palestinian people and that will likely not change.
Hamas is the second dominant party in the Palestinian world that potentially could take over using a classic rigged election or perhaps just a militarized takeover. This is not unusual in the Palestinian world, Abbas himself was elected once to a four-year term in 2008 and yet still is recognized as the legitimate leader by the international world, despite never having held new elections. Hamas currently rules the Gaza strip and is increasingly growing in size within the West Bank. With constant active hostility towards Israel, they are directly responsible for all Israeli operations in Gaza with the exception of the last one. From a security perspective, the assumption is that Israel is afraid of this outcome, but the truth is a bit more complex.
Despite a recent UN report regarding the region that refused to even mention them, Hamas is an internationally recognized terrorist organization. This global recognition, according to both Israeli and Arab scholars (see: https://thearabweekly.com/palestinians-after-abu-mazen ), gives Israel the power to use all the IDF’s might to crush them with every single terrorist act they are expected to execute. What happens in this scenario after Hamas is brought to its knees and the Palestinian people are liberated from them is a tough question to answer, but likely will end in lawlessness.
Anarchy in the Arab communities of the West Bank and Gaza is not as the same as western-defined anarchy. Culturally and historically the Palestinians are extremely tribal, with the rule of the land literally changing between each village. There will be some villages that will likely unite against “Israeli occupation”, while many if not most of them will do what is best for their people on a fiscal level, and join Israel.
The incident points to the troubling trend of increased violence in the West Bank by terrorist groups, which are positioning themselves to assume control of the increasingly lawless Palestinian Authority (PA) when its current president, Mahmoud Abbas, dies or leaves office.
— D.Y (@dal0028751) October 9, 2022
It is also highly likely that the neighboring Arab nations will pick sides between the future anti and pro-Israeli villages. This would create the same cycle that brought the conflict to its current form, a significant party of Palestinians that are heavily financed and therefore have the upper hand. The main difference this time would be the current and future status Arab nations have towards Israel, which is largely becoming non-hostile, to say the least.
In this identical cycle, the result will not be an anti-Israeli Arab regime within the West Bank, because its foreign Arab supporters will seek another path that maintains their strong economy-based relations with Israel. This “lawlessness” mentioned in the latter could actually act as a reboot in the West Bank. It can be so successful that perhaps it would result in Arab residents of Judea & Samaria actually acting on behalf of what will truly benefit them on a socio-economic level.
I wonder what's gonna happen when Mahmoud Abbas croaks. The PA has been ossifying under his decrepit leadership. I'm not sure what happens to it once the old man inevitably dies.
— Psychic War Vet (@Post_Punk_Prick) April 11, 2022
Of Course, all these assumptions are purely hypothetical and the true outcome is as unpredictable as all Arab affairs. Nevertheless, when breaking down the assumed possibilities for an Abu Mazen-free future, the different scenarios truly all lead to the eventual reality needed to be faced, working with Israel is the Palestinian people's best option.
