In a decisive move that could signal the beginning of an expanded war on Israel's northern border, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare for a broad military campaign in Lebanon. This development comes after more than 11 months of escalating tensions and repeated provocations by Hezbollah, which has joined forces with Hamas in a sustained assault on Israel. Netanyahu, addressing his Security Cabinet, underscored the critical nature of the situation: "The situation in the north cannot continue. We need to change the balance and must return the residents home. This will not be done without changing the balance vis-Ă -vis Hezbollah."
Escalating Tensions and Military Preparations
The urgency of Netanyahu's directive was magnified over the weekend as Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets into Israel, prompting a swift and targeted response by the IDF. Israeli forces struck multiple Hezbollah ammunition depots, including some as far as 150 kilometers from Israel’s borders, signaling a readiness to extend military operations deep into Lebanese territory.
Netanyahu ordered the IDF to prepare for a broad campaign in Lebanon: "The situation cannot continue"
— Dana Levi ×“× ×”đź‡®đź‡±đź‡şđź‡¸ (@Danale) September 15, 2024
More than 11 months into the war, in a strategic discussion chaired by the Prime an understanding was formed that the American diplomatic move is not rising. Israel is building… pic.twitter.com/Jsx6oslcnm
Despite ongoing American diplomatic efforts, led by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, Israeli officials are increasingly skeptical about the prospects of a peaceful resolution. The American initiative, aimed at de-escalating tensions and preventing a full-scale conflict, has yet to yield tangible results. As a result, Israel is preparing for the possibility that a military campaign may be unavoidable. "A military campaign in the north is a matter of time," a senior Israeli official stated, indicating that the timeline for such an operation could range from a few weeks to a few months.
Diplomatic Doubts and Military Realities
Within Israeli leadership circles, there is widespread doubt that diplomacy alone can resolve the current conflict and secure the return of displaced northern residents to their homes. "Who will return home because Nasrallah will sign a paper?" security officials questioned, reflecting skepticism about the likelihood of Hezbollah's leader agreeing to disarm and withdraw his forces north of the Litani River. The prevailing view within the defense establishment is that only a decisive military victory will change the status quo and restore stability.
Channel 13 is reporting that sources close to PM Netanyahu are saying that the forthcoming war against Hezbollah and Lebanon will take place in a matter of weeks or a few months.
— Marc Zell (@GOPIsrael) September 14, 2024
Me: THAT’S MUCH TOO LONG. Hopefully this is disinformation.
The IDF's preparations for a potential broad campaign in Lebanon are supported by substantial arms management and international legitimacy efforts. Following significant armament buildup, the IDF's current level of preparedness matches, if not exceeds, its capabilities before the October 7 escalation. While a final decision on launching a military campaign has not yet been made, Netanyahu’s directive marks a clear shift towards a more aggressive posture against Hezbollah.
Geopolitical Implications and American Concerns
Netanyahu’s push for military readiness comes amid complex geopolitical considerations, particularly regarding Iran's potential role in a broader conflict. While Tehran has thus far refrained from directly attacking Israel, the presence of American military forces in the region serves as a significant deterrent. However, Israeli officials warn that a direct confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon could prompt Iran to open multiple fronts against Israel, heightening the risk of a regional war.
The United States, acutely aware of the broader implications of a conflict in Lebanon, is keen to delay any major military action. Washington's concerns are not just about regional stability but also about domestic political calculations, with fears that a war could disrupt Vice President Kamala Harris’ political prospects ahead of the upcoming U.S. elections.
Netanyahu orders IDF to prepare for a broad campaign in Lebanon: Netanyahu's order given during a security-strategic discussion with the participation of the heads of the defense establishment and ministers Gallant, Katz, Smotrich and Dermer. https://t.co/4A5PYqxJTu ArutzSheva pic.twitter.com/NswfGplEbR
— Jewish Community (@JComm_NewsFeeds) September 15, 2024
Leadership Divisions and Future Steps
Within the Israeli government, there are differing opinions on how to navigate the current impasse. While Netanyahu remains deeply skeptical of the U.S.-led diplomatic initiative, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant believes there is still a chance for a negotiated settlement. This divergence reflects broader debates within Israel’s leadership about the best path forward. Nonetheless, Netanyahu has signaled his commitment to changing the balance of power in the north, even as he continues to engage with U.S. efforts to avert a full-scale war.
As tensions continue to simmer, the Israeli Security Cabinet is set to reconvene, with discussions likely to focus on adding the safe return of displaced residents to the war’s objectives. This underscores the broader humanitarian and strategic stakes at play, as Israel seeks to secure its borders, protect its citizens, and restore a sense of normalcy for those affected by the ongoing conflict.
In this high-stakes environment, Netanyahu's directive to the IDF is not just a tactical decision but a strategic maneuver aimed at reasserting Israel's position in the face of mounting threats from Hezbollah and its allies. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether Israel can achieve its objectives through military means or if a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough can prevent the outbreak of a wider war.
