On the same day it was reported that Iran and Saudi Arabi have mended their fences in Beijing and are reestablishing diplomatic ties, a report in the Wall Street Journal has Saudi Arabia demanding that the US provide it with security guarantees and permission to develop a plan for civilian nuclear infrastructure in exchange for a peace agreement with Israel.
The normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia has risen to the top of the priorities of President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Biden administration is deeply involved in the complex negotiations and any deal will reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. The Saudis' demands for security guarantees and nuclear aid are among the daunting obstacles to the anticipated deal, as some lawmakers in Washington are likely to oppose those steps.
There is much work๐งโ๐ญ to be done but our๐บ๐ธ recognition that ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ค๐ฎ๐ฑ is in our interest is a giant leap for an Administration generally perceived as indifferent-to-hostile to the strategy of broadening the circle of peace๐๏ธ.
โ Samawal Foundations (@Samawal_LLC) March 9, 2023
May the effort succeed๐https://t.co/sn8TrP1Jo7 via @WSJ
Riyadh remains cautious about reaching a deal. The former US ambassador to Israel, Daniel Shapiro, noted that "normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, under the guidance of the United States, is in the interest of all three parties. But that doesn't mean it will be easy." Nevertheless, American, Israeli, and Saudi officials said that a peace agreement is within reach.
Saudi Arabia has deepened its security ties with Israel in recent years, in the shadow of the Iranian threat, and sees the economic potential in the agreement with Jerusalem. In addition, the sources point out that an agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem may speed up the establishment of a regional military alliance against Tehran and push the idea of โโa two-state solution between the Israelis and the Palestinian Authority further off the table. The question now remains, does the announcement in China this morning about Tehran and Riyadh burying the hatchet impact the desire for the Saudis to align themselves with Israel?
#SaudiArabia and #Iran have agreed to restore diplomatic ties, Iran announced today.
โ Israel National News - Arutz Sheva (@ArutzSheva_En) March 10, 2023
The two countries will reopen their embassies in Riyadh and Tehran within 60 days, Iranian media reported, claiming that the deal was reached during a recent meeting in #China. https://t.co/ehkAZ9YdnV pic.twitter.com/XMa3HMI3vp
For decades, the Saudis have said publicly that a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for recognizing Israel. However, Israeli officials now say that Saudi Arabia did not ask for significant concessions on the Palestinian issue as part of the talks. Two Israeli-American delegations returned from meetings in Riyadh at the end of last year, believing that the Saudis do not see the Palestinian issue as of utmost importance.
Riyadh wants US support to enrich uranium and develop its own fuel production system. American and Israeli officials fear that this will allow Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear weapons and accelerate the arms race with Iran. "The nuclear issue is one of, if not the biggest, challenges for Israel, and Jerusalem should debate whether this is worth the price for peace," said Yoel Guzansky, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel who specializes in Saudi-Israeli relations.
Ilhan Omar @IlhanMN, a sitting US Congresswoman, retweets a hateful message against our greatest allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia ๐ธ๐ฆ and Israel ๐ฎ๐ฑ. This person runs the organization founded by a Muslim Brotherhood terror supporter. h/t @AvivaKlompas pic.twitter.com/jDJuIBj5Rr
โ Avi Kaner ุงุจุฑุงููู ืืื (@AviKaner) March 10, 2023
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia faces domestic risks if it establishes diplomatic relations with Israel, with polls showing mixed opinions. Opposition among Saudi citizens to establishing ties with Israel has dropped to just 38% in 2022 compared to 91% in 2014, according to a recent survey conducted.
