Southern Lebanon evacuations on September 23, 2023 (Telegram Video)

As Israel's ground offensive in Lebanon escalates, nearly one-quarter of Lebanese territory has fallen under evacuation orders, with the United Nations confirming the extent of this mass exodus. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued stern warnings to the residents of southern Lebanon, urging them to avoid returning to their homes as the military intensifies its campaign to uproot Hezbollah from its fortified positions along the Israeli border. Those positions should never have been allowed to be set up. Under U.N. resolution 1701, a U.N. force in southern Lebanon was tasked since 2006 with securing it from Hezbollah. Instead, the buildup of munitions, weapons and rocket launchers has been shocking.

The sweeping evacuation effort, which coincides with Lebanon’s demographic composition—around 40% of the population are Shia Muslims but not all support Hezbollah. According to polls taken before Israel's war on Gaza, around two thirds of Shias backed the Iranian proxy, that amounts to between 25% and 30% of the total population. Israel's orders to evacuate have been heeded by the residents, leading to hundreds of thousands fleeing the areas of southern Lebanon. Southern Lebanon, long seen as a Hezbollah stronghold, now stands at the heart of this massive humanitarian crisis. The IDF, in a painstaking process to minimize civilian casualties, has made concerted efforts to notify residents in Hezbollah-aligned villages to evacuate. Thousands of phone calls were placed directly to the residents, pleading for their cooperation. In one striking exchange, a defiant resident of a Hezbollah-controlled village dismissed the evacuation order, invoking divine protection from Allah and refusing to flee, despite the personal appeal from the IDF officer on the line.

Since Israel’s military incursion began last week, over 100 villages and urban neighborhoods in southern Lebanon have been marked for evacuation. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has acknowledged that the scale of the operation is unprecedented. Israel, for its part, insists these orders are designed to protect innocent lives, as Hezbollah uses civilian areas as launching pads for attacks on Israel. In fact, few armies warn the residents of hostile towns to vacate, Israel's attention to ensuring minimal deaths has been hailed in Gaza where Israel has achieved the lowest combatant to civilian death rate, with the highest estimates being one to one and a half (1:1.5 ). The average, according to Colonel John Spencer who Chair's West Point's Urban Warfare studies and is considered the worl'd leading authority on the subject, the modern warfare average for combatant to civilian deaths is one to nine (1:9).

At the same time, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (U.N.IFIL), which has long been tasked with overseeing peace in the region and implementing U.N. Resolution 1701—calling for Hezbollah’s disarmament and withdrawal from the border—has come under fire. Israel has accused the U.N. of failing to curb Hezbollah’s military entrenchment, allowing the group to establish a sophisticated network of rocket-launching positions, which threatened Israeli towns and cities. UNIFIL’s inaction, critics say, paved the way for Hezbollah to amass a formidable arsenal that has been used to shell Israeli civilian areas with impunity.

In fact, earlier on Thursday, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari led a group of reporters, secured by IDF soldiers and heavy armor, thorugh a village across from Israel's border where he showed them the stockpiles of weapons and assault gear that had been found in practically every home. The running theory is that the gear and weapons were stored there in preparation for an October 7th style attack, this time on Israel's northern communities, that was to have coincided with the anniversary of Hamas' attack. Hagari called the plans "Conquer the Galilee". It was not clear what intelligence the IDF had that revealed it.  

A Region on Edge: Escalating Conflict, Civilian Displacement, and International Tensions

More than a million Lebanese civilians have now fled their homes, according to estimates from the Lebanese government. Entire towns in the southern regions have been emptied, leaving behind a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions. Makeshift tent camps have sprung up in Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square, where displaced families scramble to survive. Lebanese civilians are not only battling fear and uncertainty but are also facing shortages of basic supplies and shelter as they pour into already overcrowded cities.

As Lebanon spirals into deeper chaos, Israeli military officials have maintained that their efforts are targeted, aiming to push Hezbollah away from the border and restore security for Israeli citizens. The strikes have been precise, officials claim, but Hezbollah continues its relentless barrage of rockets, keeping the conflict at a simmering boil. On Thursday, Hezbollah launched 105 projectiles into northern Israel, killing a civilian couple in Kiryat Shmona and wounding several others.

Israel’s military has mounted more than 9,500 strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon over the past year, a staggering number that underscores the intensity of the campaign. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reports over 2,100 deaths in Lebanon, the vast majority of which are Hezbollah combatants killed in Israeli airstrikes. Meanwhile, northern Israel has also borne the brunt of Hezbollah’s assault, with over 50 Israeli casualties from rockets since the start of the conflict in October last year.

Iran’s Shadow Looms: Israel Prepares for Retaliation

While the conflict with Hezbollah rages, Israel’s security cabinet is also grappling with how to respond to an even more potent threat: Iran. Following a recent Iranian missile strike, where 180 ballistic missiles were launched at Israeli targets, the Israeli government is preparing its next move. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are set to deliberate over the appropriate military response, with an Israeli official confirming that a retaliatory strike against Iran is likely imminent.

In a high-stakes phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden, Netanyahu discussed Israel's plans for retaliatory action against Iran, signaling that the scope of this conflict may soon widen further. The Israeli leadership is weighing various military options, though the exact timing and targets remain classified. Israel has made clear that it will not stand idly by as Tehran attempts to destabilize the region through its proxy Hezbollah and direct military aggression.

Despite these plans, tensions between Washington and Jerusalem surfaced when Netanyahu abruptly blocked Gallant from flying to the U.S. for a scheduled meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The Israeli Defense Minister had been expected to provide updates on the situation, but with Israel’s retaliatory plans still unfolding, the trip was postponed indefinitely.

A Global Response: Israel's Operations Under Scrutiny

Internationally, Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon has drawn sharp criticism from various quarters. The European Union’s foreign-policy chief, Josep Borrell, lambasted Israel for what he described as "grave violations" of international humanitarian law. After U.N.IFIL reported that two of its peacekeepers were injured in an Israeli tank strike on its Naqoura headquarters, Borrell demanded accountability and compliance with U.N.SC Resolution 1701. According to U.N.IFIL, Israeli forces have also disabled surveillance equipment around their positions, adding further tension to an already volatile situation.

Yet many in Israel argue that international condemnation is misguided, especially when Hezbollah’s unprovoked rocket attacks on civilian areas continue unabated. They point to Hezbollah’s long-standing violations of international law and its deliberate use of civilians as human shields.

As the situation deteriorates, there is little hope for a swift resolution. Both Israel and Hezbollah remain locked in a vicious cycle of strikes and counter-strikes, while the civilian populations on both sides pay a steep price. With no immediate end in sight, Lebanon stands on the brink of collapse, and the region teeters closer to broader conflict.

Conclusion

Israel's military operations in Lebanon reflect the complex and dangerous dynamics of the region, where Hezbollah's military power, backed by Iran, has grown unchecked for years. As evacuation orders continue to expand and the conflict widens, Lebanon faces not just a humanitarian crisis but the prospect of even greater instability in the weeks to come. Meanwhile, Israel’s government weighs critical decisions that could define the future of the region, as it navigates between its existential security concerns and the mounting pressures from the international community.

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