The death of Mahmoud Abbas, also known as 'Abu Mazen' in Arab society, could lead to mass protests, violence, and even the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG), which warns that although the best scenario is holding democratic elections; it remains the "least likely" option.
The organization warned that the 87-year-old chairman of the Palestinian Authority, a man elected to a four-year term in 2005, which was the last time Palestine has held democratic elections, does not have a defined and agreed successor, and on the other hand, Palestinian society is divided into many groups and there are quite a few potential successors who desire the position. The report stated that Abu Mazen "empties the Palestinian institutions and mechanisms of their duties and powers to decide who will succeed him ", so that "it is not clear who will succeed him and in what way it will be done".
Cancelling the election showed immense concern by Abbas that he would lose the presidency, which he has used to enrich himself hundreds of millions rimes over. It would open the door to him personally being arrested for embezzlement. He is not well liked (https://t.co/E6Avz7uTAm)
— Zach זק (@ZachLewis3187) May 12, 2021
In fact, the Palestinians have not gone to elections since 2005, that is, since Abu Mazen came to power. Even after announcing elections in 2021, Abu Mazen reversed this decision, excusing his cancellation by blaming it on Israel's refusal to allow East Jerusalem to serve as the capital of the Palestinian Authority. On the other hand, most analysts attributed Abu Mazen's move to fear of a decline in the popularity of the Fatah movement, which he heads, which could have led to the victory of Hamas.
The ICG report also mentioned several possible names who may try to become Abu Mazen's appointed successor. Among other people, the Minister of Civil Affairs and the Secretary of the PLO Executive Committee, Hussein Al-Sheikh, who was recently recorded cursing Abu Mazen, was mentioned.
Although he chose successor not clear what will happen the day after Abu Mazen. Leaked tape in which voice of #2 man in #PalestinianAuthority can be heard shows Abu Mazen is concerned about successor. No one in #Israel can tell what will happen in Ramallah the day after [Maariv] pic.twitter.com/FL3XKtvSpY
— Eli Dror (@edrormba) December 30, 2022
In addition, the name of the head of the Palestinian Intelligence Service, Majed Faraj, came up. Although the two have senior status in the Palestinian Authority and a proven ability to work with the international community, the report indicates that they are not sufficiently popular among the Palestinians.
Another name mentioned is that of the president of the Palestinian Football Association, Jibril Rajoub, or Abu Rami, and also of the former head of the PA security service, Muhammad Dahlan, who has been living in the United Arab Emirates following a conflict with Abu Mazen that many feared would be resolved with Dahlan's assassination. The report concluded that "each of these people has a special network of relationships, yet none of them can work alone".
Will the successor of Mahmoud Abbas be appointed or elected? OPINION #Palestine https://t.co/q1MoMpfXLU
— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) January 27, 2023
In the past year, senior officials of the Israeli security establishment have repeatedly warned that the Palestinian Authority is losing control in Jenin and Nablus, which allows the rise of terrorist armed groups in those areas. While the security establishment succeeded in thwarting the terrorist infrastructure of the “Lions' Den” in Nablus, in Jenin the situation is more complex with heavy exchanges of fire already being seen between the PA forces and the other armed men.
