In a significant shift in policy, Israel is taking proactive steps to prepare for the potential cessation of security coordination with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the wake of Hamas's potential downfall in Gaza. This decision emerged during a recent meeting of the political-security cabinet, where ministers reached a consensus that the security establishment should draft a plan to "reverse the rupture" in Judea and Samaria within a week. Additionally, the meeting discussed contingency solutions in case the PA's security mechanisms were to turn against Israel.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had originally proposed the need to prepare for such a scenario months ago, but his stance had faced opposition. However, given the recent developments and the breakdown of the security situation during the ongoing conflict, Smotrich reintroduced the proposal. He highlighted the behavior of the Palestinian Authority since the tragic events of October 7th and emphasized his stance against paying for temporary peace.
Hold on, forget about what #Israel said tonight. Focus on what the head of the Palestinian Authority said before: 'The #Hamas leaders – and I say this for the first time – fled #Gaza to the Sinai in ambulances, leaving their people behind.' Did he say that Hamas terrorists used… pic.twitter.com/QmqjEthrdX
— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) November 3, 2023
Subsequently, several ministers rallied behind the idea of reevaluating Israel's relationship with the PA and ensuring preparedness in the event of a scenario where reliance on the PA for security is no longer viable. Although a specific timeline for severing this dependence has not been established, the primary objective of the plan is to prevent Israel from being caught unprepared if the PA were to take hostile actions against Israel.
Meanwhile, as the cabinet contemplated severing ties with the Palestinian Authority, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sought external counsel with a different perspective. Brigadier General (res.) Udi Dekel, a prominent figure in the "Palestinian Program" of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), was enlisted as a consultant for post-war planning in the Gaza Strip.
Dekel advocates for a strategy of gradual integration of the Palestinian Authority into the Gaza Strip, starting with civilian mechanisms. He recently articulated this viewpoint, stating, "At the end of the war, there should be a gradual integration of the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip, first of the civilian mechanisms." In his view, Israel should take significant political and public steps, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's political process. Dekel emphasized, "Israel will be required to take steps of high political and public significance, in particular in the context of a political process with the Palestinians."
However, it is worth noting that Dekel's perspective does not align with the majority of cabinet ministers, who oppose the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza. Furthermore, several members of the defense establishment share this viewpoint.
Just read the “Day after Abbas” memorandum from INSS.
— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) January 12, 2023
There some important details that they are missing, but overall a good publication.
This memorandum was written by senior Israeli official Udi Dekel and researcher [@noashus88] pic.twitter.com/2QxxzIh3a5
This development represents a shift in Israel's strategic thinking regarding its relationship with the Palestinian Authority and its approach to post-conflict planning in the Gaza Strip. It remains to be seen how these differing viewpoints within Israel's leadership will shape the country's policies in the future.
