Kyle Inan is a renowned geopolitical analyst, whose insights and commentary on global affairs are highly sought after by businesses, governments, and media outlets around the world. With a wealth of experience and expertise in international relations, Mr. Inan has established himself as a leading voice on topics ranging from security and conflict, to trade and diplomacy. He is considered one of the most insightful and influential thinkers who has written for The World Economic Forum and serves as a Senior Geopolitical Analyst for A News International which is based in Turkey.
Having spent a decade in the field of international business, spanning across different corners of the world, Mr. Inan took a keen interest in exploring the origins and evolution of international trade. Delving into history, he sought to understand the reasons behind its inception and the subsequent development that has led to the present-day structure of global commerce that affects our daily lives. This led him in 2020 to publish his first book, "A Historical Perspective of the Evolution of the International Monetary System" which details the development of a global system that began in 1871 after Germany adopted The Gold Standard.
In this interview, we'll have the privilege of gaining a deeper understanding of Mr. Inan's perspectives on the regional landscape from a noted Eurasian expert. From the seemingly diplomatic withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East to China's surprising mediation that led to Iran and Saudi Arabia resuming relations, Mr. Inan gives informed insight into how Israel and the region are affected.
The Judean: How would you assess the current state of the US-Israel economic and geopolitical relations?
Inan: The United States and Israel share many common interests and have cooperated closely on a wide range of geopolitical issues. Both countries view Iran as a major threat to regional stability and have worked together to impose economic sanctions on Iran and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. The United States has also been a key mediator in Israeli- Palestinian peace negotiations and the two countries have worked together on various security and counterterrorism initiatives.
However, there have been tensions in the relationship in recent years. In 2015, the United States signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, which Israel strongly opposed. In 2018, the United States withdrew from the agreement, but tensions between the two countries remained. Additionally, there have been disagreements between the United States and Israel over settlement construction in the West Bank, with the United States expressing concerns that settlement expansion could undermine the prospects for a two-state solution.
The Judean: Many argue that the United States has left the region, China has moved in to broker a détente between Tehran and Riyadh, and is making overtures to Israel as well. Just this week the Israeli and Chinese foreign ministers have spoken and it appears that China is trying to supplant the US not simply in trade and tourism with Israel, but as a mediator to help stabilize the region. What do you see as China’s role and how do you believe it will affect future US-Israel relations?
Inan: I think that China's growing involvement in the Middle East is a very significant development, and its role as a mediator between Tehran and Riyadh could have significant implications for the region's stability. China has a considerable economic stake in the Middle East, with its growing energy demands driving its interest in the region's energy resources. China has also been involved in infrastructure development projects in the region, including the construction of ports and railways.
However, it's essential to note that China's involvement in the Middle East is primarily driven by its economic interests, rather than geopolitical concerns or ideological motivations. As such, China's role as a mediator in the region is likely to be limited to economic and commercial issues, rather than broader political and security matters.
Regarding China's relationship with Israel, it's important to note that China's engagement with Israel has grown in recent years, particularly in the areas of technology and innovation. However, China's relationship with Israel is still relatively limited compared to its relationships with other countries in the region.
In terms of how China's involvement in the region will affect future US-Israel relations, it's difficult to say with certainty. However, the US-Israel relationship is a longstanding alliance built on shared democratic values and strategic interests, and it's unlikely that China's involvement in the region will fundamentally alter that relationship. However, it's possible that the US and Israel may need to adjust their approach to regional issues to take into account China's growing role in the Middle East.
The Judean: How do you view the course of diplomatic, commercial, and economic affairs regarding the Abraham Accords?
Inan: The Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020, is a set of agreements aimed at normalizing diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations between Israel and two Arab states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. Since then, several other countries, including Sudan and Morocco, have also joined the accords. The effectiveness of the Abraham Accords in achieving their stated objectives is still being evaluated, but there are several notable developments that suggest some progress has been made.
First, the Accords have led to the establishment of direct flights between Israel and the UAE, with more than 130 direct flights per week by January 2021. This has increased economic and cultural exchanges between the two countries and facilitated tourism and business ventures.
Second, the Accords have resulted in the signing of several bilateral agreements, including agreements on investment protection, aviation, and visa waivers. These agreements are expected to increase economic ties between the signatory countries and contribute to regional economic growth.
Third, the Accords have provided an opportunity for Israel and Arab states to cooperate on regional security issues, particularly in countering the threat posed by Iran. In February 2021, Israel and the UAE held their first joint military exercise, which included ground, air, and naval forces.
However, some critics argue that the Abraham Accords do not address the core issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and that the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states should be contingent on progress toward a resolution of the conflict. Additionally, some have raised concerns that the Accords may undermine the Arab states' commitment to the Palestinian cause and weaken their bargaining position in any future negotiations.
To summarize, while it is still too early to fully evaluate the effectiveness of the Abraham Accords, some progress has been made in terms of increased economic and cultural exchanges, bilateral agreements, and regional security cooperation. However, the long-term implications of the Accords, particularly in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, remain uncertain.
The Judean: In Israel as well as some corners of the global Jewish world, many people believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was manufactured by the Arab world. To back up this belief, they point out that the Arab League rejected the 1947 partition plan and went to war. After that, UNRWA was established at the insistence of these Arab States to ensure that Palestinian refugees remain refugees while refugees under UNHCR rules, those displaced decades ago are no longer refugees, but citizens of the nations that took them in. In Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Arabia, and even the UAE, there are people whose parents and grandparents never set foot in Palestine but still have no citizenship in the countries they were born and raised in. Israel has made clear under liberal and conservative governments that a Palestinian Right of Return is a non-starter, it will alter the demographic balance and threaten the nation’s existence as a Jewish State. So, can the Abraham Accords truly bring peace to the region while the issue of refugees exists, and if so, what happens to all those refugees?
Inan: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a complex and long-standing issue, and there are multiple factors that have contributed to its origins and continuation. While some argue that the conflict was manufactured by the Arab world, others would argue that it is rooted in historical and territorial grievances and competing national aspirations.
Regarding the issue of refugees, it is undoubtedly one of the most challenging aspects of the conflict. It is argued by some circles that the displacement of Palestinians in 1948 and the subsequent creation of UNRWA was undoubtedly a product of the conflict. Still, the situation has been perpetuated over time by the failure of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to reach a comprehensive agreement that addresses the refugee issue, among other aspects of the conflict.
The Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco represent a very significant step forward in regional diplomacy and cooperation. Still, it's important to note that they do not directly address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the normalization of relations between Israel and these Arab countries is a positive development, it is unlikely to lead to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict without addressing the core issues, including the refugee issue.
It's also worth noting that resolving the refugee issue is unlikely to be straightforward and will require compromises from both sides. The right of return, in this case, is a particular issue that many Palestinians still see as a crucial aspect of any comprehensive peace agreement. The international community, including the United States, will likely play a crucial role in facilitating negotiations and providing support for refugees and displaced persons.
In conclusion, while the Abraham Accords is a most positive development, they are not an antidote for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Addressing the refugee issue will be a challenging but necessary aspect of any comprehensive peace agreement, and it will require significant compromise and support from the international community.
The Judean: To what extent does the Israel public support U.S. foreign policies with regard to the Middle East, especially aggressive policies?
Inan: Many Israeli veterans who have served in the Israel Defense Forces find it appalling that the U.S. foreign policy has shifted from nuclear non-proliferation to arming Kurdish rebels in Syria, the extent to which YPG is supported. In so doing, the U.S. was close to losing its closest NATO ally, Turkey, the strongest military power, in the Middle Eastern region.
Israeli public perception of US foreign policy is generally positive, with Israel being one of the United States strongest allies in the Middle East. The two countries share close strategic and diplomatic ties, with the US providing significant military and economic aid to Israel.
In recent years, there has been some concern among Israelis about the US government's approach to Middle East policy, particularly regarding the US-led negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Some Israelis have expressed concerns that the negotiations could result in a deal that would not do enough to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, which Israel sees as an existential threat.
Overall, however, Israeli public opinion towards the US remains largely positive, with many Israelis viewing the US as a critical ally and friend. The US has also been a strong supporter of Israel's security and territorial integrity, which is a top priority for many Israelis.
The Judean: Speaking about Turkey, while the country is a popular tourist destination for Israelis and many in Israel have an affinity for the Turkish people, there is confusion about Turkey’s feelings about Israel. President Erdogan, while on one hand extending his hand to Israel is also one of the most vocal critics – Israelis see this duality and many are concerned about it. A report a few weeks ago though alarmed many in Israel. After a recent incident at Al Aqsa Mosque in which Israeli Police removed people who barricaded themselves in, Erdogan had told Iran’s President Raisi that the Islamic world should unite against Israel. What are your thoughts on Turkish-Israeli relations and how do you see recent regional developments, specifically the Chinese efforts to bring Iran and the Arab world together, affecting the Turkish-Israeli relationship?
Inan: Elections in Turkey will take place on May 14th, 2023 (within 25 days) and the outcome of the elections will determine the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel. Turkey has become increasingly critical of Israeli policies over the past decade towards the Palestinians and has forged closer ties with Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip. The Turkish President has also been a vocal critic of Israeli policies and has made several statements that have been perceived as anti-Semitic by some circles in Israel.
Regarding recent regional developments, the Chinese efforts to bring Iran and the Arab world together are likely to have a little direct impact on Turkish-Israeli relations. While China's growing involvement in the Middle East could potentially alter regional dynamics and shift alliances, Turkey and Israel's relationship is shaped primarily by their shared history, strategic interests, and ideological orientations.
The recent incident at Al Aqsa Mosque, as well as the Turkish President's comments about the need for Islamic unity against Israel, are likely to minimally strain the relationship between Turkey and Israel since the Israeli President's diplomatic visit, as well as the Israeli Defense Minister's recent visits to Turkey, have provided great momentum to repair the strenuous course of the ongoing relations. To that end, the two strategic partners in the region will benefit greatly from trade and tourism in the years to come.
Regarding the impact of recent regional developments, including the Chinese efforts to bring Iran and the Arab world together, it's difficult to say how they will affect Turkish-Israeli relations. While Turkey and Israel share some strategic interests, such as opposition to Iranian expansionism and support for regional stability, they also have significant differences on key issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the role of Islamist groups in the region.
In conclusion, the relationship between Turkey and Israel is likely to remain complicated and subject to periodic tensions, reflecting broader regional dynamics and geopolitical shifts. While recent events such as the Al Aqsa Mosque incident and President Erdogan's comments about Islamic unity against Israel are likely to exacerbate tensions between the two countries, the primary factors shaping their relationship are likely to remain largely unchanged by regional developments such as China's growing involvement in the Middle East.
